Ukraine at a tragic crossroads

US President Donald Trump will receive Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky today at his private residence, Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

However, this is not a meeting for typical diplomatic negotiation between two heads of state as colleagues (*).The US President will deliver a stark choice to Zelensky: Either accept the American peace plan in its revised form – or continue the war, but forget about our support.

And, we don’t want this to drag on much longer.Ukraine and Zelensky are at a major crossroads.The first option would mean the formal acceptance of a heavy defeat.

A peace agreement to end a war in which hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians lost their lives, millions got their lives turned upside down, the country suffered a terrible devastation, lost 20% of its territory – and now the path to NATO is sealed off.The latest signals indicate this option to be more likely so that the parties will agree to take further steps towards a framework agreement.

Trump previously said he would only meet Zelensky if he saw the peace is near.The second option, which seems less likely, would mean an even greater catastrophe for Ukraine where developments could trigger the collapse of the army and the state.A heavy defeatThis is the more favorable scenario for Ukraine.Zelensky announced for the first time that he could cede the territories in the Donbas basin that Russia has not yet taken, on the condition that they be declared demilitarized zones, and that he would submit the entire peace plan to a public vote.A sub-agreement for security guarantees is almost completed with the US.

All these show that the first option is a closer possibility.The territories lost by Ukraine were areas predominantly inhabited by the Russian population, so now the country will have a more homogeneous population.

The re-construction of the country and a rapid EU membership process may begin.However, despite everything, it is impossible to ignore the heavy defeat.Who are responsible for the tragedy – the lost lives, territories, and devastation?

There are so many questions hard to evade.This is never the outcome Zelensky promised at the beginning of the war.Shortly before the war began, then-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggested to Zelensky that he “announce Ukraine’s voluntary withdrawal from NATO membership and prevent the war,” which he refused.

Scholz himself disclosed this.Immediately after Russia started the invasion and the war, a written peace agreement was reached by the parties.

The Russians would withdraw their troops, and Ukraine would not seek NATO membership but could be an EU member.

Zelensky, persuaded through the rapid intervention of the US-UK duo, broke the agreement and continued the war.Now the outcome is before us.Zelensky stands at the forefront of those who must account for the heavy defeat.

And that accountability will most likely be demanded firstly by Ukrainian nationalists – among others.In Ukraine, where corruption is widespread, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) was established and granted autonomy under pressure from Western powers that poured billions of dollars into the country.Feeling that investigations were approaching ast his closest circle, Zelensky prepared a bill in the summer to abolish NABU’s autonomy and bring it under his own control.

His pretext was “Russians have infiltrated NABU.” However, the outraged public fed up with corruption, organized protest rallies in many cities.

The Western powers intervened, and Zelensky was forced to withdraw the bill.Andrey Yermak, a supporter of continuing the war, was a key figure closest to Zelensky, considered by many as a “Vice President.” He conducted negotiations with Western countries and even held covert contacts with Russia.Mr Yermak was involved in a major corruption scandal recently uncovered by NABU, and he was forced to resign.

Now Zelenskyy is deprived of his closest political ally and more isolated than ever.Tymur Mindich, a businessman who has been Zelensky’s prominent financial backer since his days making TV films before he became president, is implicated in hundreds of millions of dollars in corruption.

He fled abroad hours before police arrived at his home.

A search of his house revealed that he used gold toilets and gold faucets.Or, a great catastropheIn case the Trump plan does not result in peace, one of Russia’s first targets will likely be to take over the entire Black Sea coast, including Odessa.

The area currently facing the most intense drone and missile attacks is actually not Kyiv, but that coastal strip.

Odessa is not just any piece of land- it is Ukraine’s last strategic gateway to the world.The army, already suffering from troop shortages, will find it very difficult to survive for long without American military support and intelligence.

Commanders on the front lines, seeing that they are losing the war and that ammunition is running out, may openly disobey the President’s orders.Opposition politicians, suppressed by the Zelensky regime, may come out publicly and loudly.

The chaos that will ensue if the central government loses its authority is almost impossible to predict.Zelensky, aware of all this, is living through his most difficult days.

The days when he was applauded for minutes in the US Congress are now a distant memory.He went down into the well with America’s rope and is stuck there.Despite Trump’s constant condescending attitude and looking down upon him, Zelensky never omits extending thanks to Trump and America in almost every remark he makes.

He is aware he needs Trump not only for Ukraine’s future but also for his own.

He is likely aware that when he leaves office, he could need the crucial CIA cover to help protect his biological life.May God never let anyone descend into such a situation.What does America want?The Trump administration, while redefining America’s global position, prioritizes competition with China and seeks to minimize engagement in other regions, including Europe.They also see no way of Ukraine winning the war or reversing the course of events in the battlefield, as they have acknowledged at several occasions.Washington’s cold and ruthless calculations, based on “American interests,” necessitate unscrewing and loosening the Russia-China alliance as much as possible.American voters, especially the Trump’s political base, are opposed to disbursing money on Ukraine.

For ordinary Americans and the Trump team, Ukraine means little.Europe, meanwhile, is largely out of the picture regarding how a war with serious long-term strategic consequences on its continent will end.

Major part of the foresight and analysis made by mainstream European politicians over the past four years has turned out to be wrong and shamefully disproven by realities.We will continue to examine in more detail the situation in Europe, which is of utmost interest to Turkey.……….(*)- First published in Turkish, on December 28, 2025, by Özgür Siyaset.